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Ray Dalio

Ray Dalio Warns of Impending Economic Risks, Pushes Gold as Superior to Treasurys

by Economic Report
September 15, 2025

Billionaire investor Ray Dalio has raised serious concerns about the reliability of U.S. Treasurys in the face of escalating national debt and potential inflationary pressures. Drawing from his decades of experience managing one of the world’s largest hedge funds, Dalio argues that traditional safe-haven assets like Treasurys face unprecedented threats, making gold a more dependable choice for preserving wealth.

The U.S. national debt now exceeds $37 trillion, a milestone reached in August 2025, with annual budget deficits hovering near $2 trillion. This mounting burden, Dalio explains, creates a precarious situation where government spending outpaces revenues by at least 40%. He compares the debt buildup to clogged arteries in the body, warning that it could eventually trigger a severe economic downturn akin to a “heart attack.” As more revenue gets diverted to interest payments, the strain on the overall economy intensifies, potentially leading to reduced growth and heightened instability.

A key part of Dalio’s critique centers on the limitations of credit ratings for government debt.

“You should know that credit ratings understate credit risks because they only rate the risk of the government not paying its debt,” Dalio stated. “They don’t include the greater risk that the countries in debt will print money to pay their debts, thus causing holders of the bonds to suffer losses from the decreased value of the money they’re getting.”

This observation points to a hidden danger for Treasury holders: even without an outright default, the Federal Reserve’s tendency to print money to cover obligations can erode purchasing power through inflation. When governments face shortfalls, they often resort to monetizing debt, which dilutes the currency and diminishes the real returns on bonds. Dalio’s warning gains added weight from recent developments, such as Moody’s downgrade of U.S. sovereign debt from Aaa to Aa1 in May 2025. This shift reflects growing doubts about the long-term sustainability of America’s fiscal path, where interest expenses alone are consuming an ever-larger share of the budget.

Dalio’s actions back up his words. In the first quarter of 2025, his former firm, Bridgewater Associates, poured $319 million into SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), signaling a strategic pivot toward the precious metal. Although Dalio personally sold his remaining shares in the fund during the summer, his broader recommendation remains clear: most investors should dedicate 10% to 15% of a diversified portfolio to gold, regardless of its current high prices.

Gold’s appeal, according to Dalio, stems from its intrinsic qualities as a store of value with no counterparty risk. Unlike Treasurys, which depend on government promises and central bank policies, gold stands independent of such interventions. It has historically served as a reliable hedge against inflation and currency devaluation, performing well during periods of economic turmoil. In a recent post on X, Dalio elaborated on these dynamics amid worries about stagflation and currency weakening: “That’s one of the reasons I say that gold will be a better performing asset.” He noted that devaluing the dollar relative to other currencies might seem tempting for policymakers, but it risks making bonds and the dollar less effective as wealth preservers.

Current market conditions reinforce Dalio’s stance. Gold futures for September 2025 delivery recently traded around $3,655 per ounce, reflecting strong demand amid global uncertainties. Analysts at UBS have even raised their price target to $3,800 per ounce by the end of 2025, citing ongoing geopolitical tensions and monetary easing as supportive factors. This trajectory suggests gold could continue outperforming in an environment where fiat currencies face debasement pressures.



Dalio’s insights challenge the conventional 60/40 portfolio split between stocks and bonds, urging a reevaluation in light of fiscal imbalances. With government outlays far exceeding income, the path forward likely involves more borrowing or money creation, both of which undermine Treasury appeal. For those seeking stability, Dalio’s push toward gold offers a practical alternative, rooted in its proven resilience against the very policies that threaten paper assets.

As Dalio promotes his new book, *How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle*, he continues to emphasize the cyclical nature of debt crises and the need for proactive measures. Investors would do well to heed his call, diversifying into tangible assets like gold to safeguard against the fallout from unchecked deficits and potential monetary overreach.

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Safeguarding Your American Dream: Discover the Power of America First Healthcare

America First Healthcare

In today’s economy, healthcare costs remain one of the biggest threats to financial stability and family security. Americans work hard to build a better life, yet rising medical expenses can quickly erode savings, force tough trade-offs, and even push families toward debt or bankruptcy. Medical bills continue to rank as the leading cause of personal bankruptcy in the United States, with millions facing underinsurance or unexpected out-of-pocket burdens that no one plans for. Many turn to government-run marketplace plans under the Affordable Care Act, hoping for relief, only to discover that what appears affordable on paper often delivers higher long-term costs, limited real protection, and coverage that may not align with personal values or family needs.

America First Healthcare stands out as a private insurance agency dedicated to helping conservatives and families secure better coverage and better rates through customized, values-aligned options. By conducting free insurance reviews, the agency uncovers hidden gaps in existing policies and connects clients with private alternatives that emphasize personal responsibility, small-government principles, and genuine affordability—often delivering up to 20% savings while providing stronger protection for the American Dream.

The allure of marketplace plans is easy to understand: open enrollment periods, premium tax credits for many households, and the promise of “comprehensive” benefits mandated by law. Yet recent data reveals a different reality, especially after the expiration of enhanced premium subsidies at the end of 2025. Enrollment for 2026 dropped by more than one million people compared to the prior year, with many shifting to lower-tier bronze plans to keep monthly premiums manageable.

These plans feature significantly higher deductibles—averaging around $7,500 nationally—and greater cost-sharing requirements. Families who once paid modest amounts after subsidies now face average premium increases of $65 or more per month, even as they accept plans that leave them responsible for thousands in upfront costs before meaningful coverage kicks in.

High deductibles create a dangerous barrier to care. Studies show that people in such plans are less likely to seek timely treatment for chronic conditions, attend preventive screenings, or fill necessary prescriptions. A seemingly minor illness or injury can balloon into major expenses when patients delay care until problems worsen. For a family of four, a single hospitalization, cancer diagnosis, or unexpected surgery can easily exceed the deductible, triggering coinsurance and out-of-pocket maximums that still leave substantial bills. One recent analysis noted that some proposed changes could push family deductibles toward $31,000 in future years, further exposing households to financial risk.

Beyond the numbers, marketplace plans often carry structural limitations. Coverage for certain critical services may include waiting periods or narrower networks that restrict access to preferred doctors and specialists. Preventive care is required to be covered without cost-sharing, but everything else—lab work, imaging, specialist visits, or ongoing treatment—typically waits until the deductible is met. This reactive model contrasts sharply with the proactive, holistic approach many families prefer, especially those focused on wellness, early intervention, and maintaining health to enjoy life rather than merely reacting to illness.

Values alignment represents another growing concern. Government-influenced plans operate within a framework shaped by federal mandates and political priorities that may not reflect conservative principles of limited government, personal freedom, and ethical stewardship. Families who want to direct their healthcare dollars toward providers and benefits that honor traditional values sometimes find marketplace options feel misaligned, forcing a compromise between affordability and conviction.

Private alternatives, by contrast, offer year-round flexibility without the restrictions of open enrollment windows. Independent agents can shop across a wider range of carriers to design plans tailored to specific family needs—whether that means lower deductibles for frequent medical users, broader provider networks, or add-ons that support wellness and preventive services from day one. Clients frequently report more stable premiums that do not automatically escalate each year, along with genuine cost savings once the full picture of deductibles, copays, and coverage depth is considered.

Take the experience of real families who made the switch. Amanda C. shared that her new plan felt “way better” than what she had through the marketplace. Johnny Y. noted his previous coverage kept increasing annually until he found a more stable private option. Sofia S. expressed delight with her plan and began recommending it to others. These stories echo a common theme: when families move beyond one-size-fits-all government marketplaces, they often discover customized protection that better safeguards both health and finances.

Founder Jordan Sarmiento’s own journey underscores the stakes. In 2021, a six-day hospitalization generated a $95,000 bill. Under a well-structured private “Conservative Care Coverage” plan, his out-of-pocket responsibility would have been just $500. That stark difference illustrates how thoughtful planning and private options can prevent a medical event from becoming a financial catastrophe.

Practical steps exist for anyone questioning their current coverage. Start with a no-obligation review of your existing policy to identify gaps—high deductibles, limited critical-care benefits, or escalating premiums. Compare total projected costs (premiums plus potential out-of-pocket expenses) rather than monthly premiums alone. Consider family health history, anticipated needs, and lifestyle priorities. Private agencies can present side-by-side options that include stronger wellness incentives, broader access, and plans built on shared values of self-reliance and freedom.

In an era when healthcare inflation continues to outpace general cost-of-living increases, relying solely on marketplace solutions carries growing risk. Families who proactively explore private alternatives frequently achieve meaningful savings while gaining peace of mind that their coverage truly works when needed most.

America First Healthcare makes this exploration straightforward through its free review process. Families and individuals receive personalized guidance to close coverage holes, reduce unnecessary expenses, and secure plans that align with conservative principles—protecting wallets, health, and the American Dream without government overreach. Many who complete a review discover they can enjoy better benefits for less, often saving up to 20% while gaining the customization and stability that marketplace plans struggle to deliver.

Ultimately, protecting your family’s future requires looking beyond the marketing of “affordable” government options. By understanding the long-term costs hidden in high deductibles, shifting coverage tiers, and values mismatches, Americans can make empowered choices. Private, values-driven insurance offers a smarter path—one that rewards diligence, supports wellness, and delivers real security. For those ready to move beyond the limitations of traditional marketplace plans, a simple review can reveal options designed to serve families, not bureaucracies. The American Dream thrives when individuals and families retain control over their healthcare decisions, and thoughtful private coverage plays a vital role in making that possible.

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