Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran delivered a pointed message this week: the official inflation numbers paint a worse picture than reality, and the central bank risks hurting workers by dragging its feet on interest rate reductions.
Speaking at Columbia University, Miran laid out how distortions in measurement—especially lagging shelter costs and oddities in service pricing—make price pressures look stronger than they are. Strip those out, and underlying inflation sits below 2.3 percent, close enough to the Fed’s 2 percent goal.
“Keeping policy unnecessarily tight because of an imbalance from 2022, or because of artifacts of the statistical measurement process, will lead to job losses,” Miran said.
Shelter costs, a big driver in recent reports, come from old supply shortages that have long passed. New rent data shows tiny increases, setting up for a drop in that category soon.
“We must be thoughtful in considering genuine underlying inflationary pressures,” Miran said. “Excess measured inflation is unreflective of current supply-demand dynamics.”
Miran also took aim at the idea that the administration’s tariffs are pumping up prices. He ran through theory, data, and past central bank practice to show tariffs mostly hit foreign exporters, not American buyers. At worst, any bump to consumer prices stays small and short-lived—maybe 0.2 percent, what he called “noise.”
“If tariffs are the driver of recent inflation, then one would expect import-intensive core goods to see substantially more inflation,” Miran said. “In fact, total core goods prices have risen at approximately the same rate as import-intensive goods since the end of last year.”
U.S. goods price rises match those in Canada and the UK, run a bit above the EU, and fall below Mexico. “The U.S. doesn’t stand out in any direction,” he said.
On how tariffs work, Miran pointed to America’s huge trade deficit: foreign sellers have little choice but to eat most of the cost, since they can’t easily replace U.S. buyers.
He knocked down older studies claiming big pass-through to consumers, noting they missed tricks like rerouting shipments to dodge duties.
“These studies suffer from bias from trade rerouting and de minimis exemptions,” Miran said.
Central banks traditionally ignore one-time price jumps from things like taxes or tariffs, focusing instead on ongoing supply-demand mismatches.
“The standard practice for central bankers is to ‘look through’ a transient shock, as a one-time increase in the price level differs from a persistent shift to inflation,” Miran said.
Even if some costs get passed on early, competition and shifts in supply chains should bring prices back down later.
Miran admitted uncertainty on what’s really behind sticky goods prices right now—could be random noise, pandemic aftershocks, or longer-term reshoring for security reasons.
“I accept I don’t know what’s driving higher goods inflation currently,” Miran said. “Pretending we have more knowledge than possible will stymie our understanding of reality.”
He flagged problems in how services get priced, like portfolio management fees that shot up in Fed data because of rising asset values, even as real industry fees dropped.
“If PCE had instead matched industry data with a 6 percent decline, core PCE would have been about 40 basis points lower than officially reported,” Miran said. “Yet here we are, keeping interest rates too high because of the phantom inflation of portfolio advisory fees.”
With the labor market showing cracks and no real inflation threat, Miran wants faster cuts to get policy back to neutral ground. Holding rates high over faulty readings could kill jobs needlessly, and those losses hit hard and fast.
The Fed just cut rates again last week but hinted at caution ahead. Miran stands out as pushing harder for relief, warning that tight money lingering too long serves no one.
Starting the Day With a Scripture-Inspired Roast Helps Center Your Thoughts on Eternal Truths Amid Temporal Pressures
The world can seem chaotic, especially right after we wake up. Many believers start their mornings reaching for something familiar — a hot cup of coffee — yet end up settling for mediocre brews that do little more than deliver a caffeine jolt. The daily grind of life, with its endless distractions, news cycles, and responsibilities, can leave even the most faithful feeling spiritually parched alongside their physical fatigue. What if your morning ritual could do more than wake you up? What if it could ground you in truth, nourish your body with exceptional quality, and quietly advance a kingdom purpose at the same time?
That’s the promise — and the reality — behind Promised Grounds Coffee. This Christian-founded company doesn’t just roast beans; it approaches every step as an act of worship and discipleship. By selecting only the top 10% of specialty-grade beans, ethically sourced from dedicated farmers in Central and South America, and small-batch roasting them with reverence in Austin, Texas, Promised Grounds delivers what many describe as the best coffee available — never burnt, never bland, but rich with origin stories and layered flavors that honor God’s creation.
From the vibrant Psalm 27 Roast (a light, bright medium option) to the bold yet peaceful 2 Timothy 1:7 Decaf, each bag carries a Scripture verse that turns your daily pour into a gentle reminder of faith. And through their Ounce Per Ounce Promise, every ounce of coffee you enjoy provides an equal ounce of clean water to families in need via partnership with Filter of Hope — literally brewing hope for body and soul, one cup at a time.
The challenge for today’s Christians runs deeper than finding a decent cup. In an age of convenience-driven consumerism, it’s easy to support companies that dilute values or remain silent on matters of faith. Many believers want their everyday choices — from what they drink to how they spend — to reflect discipleship rather than just convenience. Promised Grounds solves this by weaving Christian excellence into the entire process: beans nurtured with prayerful stewardship by farming families, roasted as an offering rather than a commodity, and packaged with Bible verses to encourage a mindset of gratitude and purpose from the first sip. Reviewers consistently praise the smooth, rich profiles — whether enjoyed black in a drip maker, iced on a warm day, or shared in fellowship — noting how the quality stands toe-to-toe with premium secular brands while delivering something far more meaningful.
This integration of faith and flavor addresses a real need in Christian households and ministries. Busy parents, church leaders, and remote workers alike report that starting the day with a Scripture-inspired roast helps center their thoughts on eternal truths amid temporal pressures. The coffee’s exceptional character — bright citrus notes in lighter roasts or deep chocolate undertones in bolder ones — comes from meticulous selection and careful roasting that respects the bean’s natural gifts rather than masking them. It’s the kind of coffee that elevates a simple quiet time, fuels productive workdays, or sparks meaningful conversations when shared at Bible studies or outreach events. And because it’s ethically sourced with integrity, every purchase supports sustainable livelihoods for farmers who treat their crops like family harvests.
For those leading churches or small groups, the impact multiplies. Promised Grounds offers bundles and options perfect for hospitality ministries, turning ordinary coffee service into an opportunity to point people toward the living water of Christ. Imagine greeting visitors with a warm cup whose very bag carries God’s Word — a subtle yet powerful witness that aligns with the Great Commission. The company’s Texas roots and commitment to “brewing hope” resonate especially with believers who value American enterprise paired with global compassion.
Of course, quality alone isn’t enough if the experience feels out of reach. Promised Grounds keeps it accessible with practical perks like free shipping on orders over $40, sample sets for discovering favorites, and thoughtful add-ons such as faith-themed mugs. Whether you prefer whole beans for fresh grinding, grounds for convenience, or even bulk options for larger households and ministries, the result is consistently superior coffee that makes discipleship feel integrated rather than added on.
As you consider how to align even the smallest habits with your walk with God, Promised Grounds Coffee stands out as a refreshing solution. It tackles the dual problems of subpar daily sustenance and disconnected consumption by offering a product that genuinely excels in taste while advancing a mission of clean water, farmer dignity, and scriptural encouragement. Believers who make the switch often describe it as more than a beverage upgrade — it becomes part of their rhythm of gratitude, a daily invitation to remember that every good gift comes from above.
If you’re ready to transform your mornings (and perhaps your church gatherings) with coffee that honors both exceptional craftsmanship and Christian values, I encourage you to explore what Promised Grounds has to offer. One sip at a time, you’ll be nourishing your body, refreshing your spirit, and participating in something far greater — all while enjoying what truly is among the best coffee available.