Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran delivered a pointed message this week: the official inflation numbers paint a worse picture than reality, and the central bank risks hurting workers by dragging its feet on interest rate reductions.
Speaking at Columbia University, Miran laid out how distortions in measurement—especially lagging shelter costs and oddities in service pricing—make price pressures look stronger than they are. Strip those out, and underlying inflation sits below 2.3 percent, close enough to the Fed’s 2 percent goal.
“Keeping policy unnecessarily tight because of an imbalance from 2022, or because of artifacts of the statistical measurement process, will lead to job losses,” Miran said.
Shelter costs, a big driver in recent reports, come from old supply shortages that have long passed. New rent data shows tiny increases, setting up for a drop in that category soon.
“We must be thoughtful in considering genuine underlying inflationary pressures,” Miran said. “Excess measured inflation is unreflective of current supply-demand dynamics.”
Miran also took aim at the idea that the administration’s tariffs are pumping up prices. He ran through theory, data, and past central bank practice to show tariffs mostly hit foreign exporters, not American buyers. At worst, any bump to consumer prices stays small and short-lived—maybe 0.2 percent, what he called “noise.”
“If tariffs are the driver of recent inflation, then one would expect import-intensive core goods to see substantially more inflation,” Miran said. “In fact, total core goods prices have risen at approximately the same rate as import-intensive goods since the end of last year.”
U.S. goods price rises match those in Canada and the UK, run a bit above the EU, and fall below Mexico. “The U.S. doesn’t stand out in any direction,” he said.
On how tariffs work, Miran pointed to America’s huge trade deficit: foreign sellers have little choice but to eat most of the cost, since they can’t easily replace U.S. buyers.
He knocked down older studies claiming big pass-through to consumers, noting they missed tricks like rerouting shipments to dodge duties.
“These studies suffer from bias from trade rerouting and de minimis exemptions,” Miran said.
Central banks traditionally ignore one-time price jumps from things like taxes or tariffs, focusing instead on ongoing supply-demand mismatches.
“The standard practice for central bankers is to ‘look through’ a transient shock, as a one-time increase in the price level differs from a persistent shift to inflation,” Miran said.
Even if some costs get passed on early, competition and shifts in supply chains should bring prices back down later.
Miran admitted uncertainty on what’s really behind sticky goods prices right now—could be random noise, pandemic aftershocks, or longer-term reshoring for security reasons.
“I accept I don’t know what’s driving higher goods inflation currently,” Miran said. “Pretending we have more knowledge than possible will stymie our understanding of reality.”
He flagged problems in how services get priced, like portfolio management fees that shot up in Fed data because of rising asset values, even as real industry fees dropped.
“If PCE had instead matched industry data with a 6 percent decline, core PCE would have been about 40 basis points lower than officially reported,” Miran said. “Yet here we are, keeping interest rates too high because of the phantom inflation of portfolio advisory fees.”
With the labor market showing cracks and no real inflation threat, Miran wants faster cuts to get policy back to neutral ground. Holding rates high over faulty readings could kill jobs needlessly, and those losses hit hard and fast.
The Fed just cut rates again last week but hinted at caution ahead. Miran stands out as pushing harder for relief, warning that tight money lingering too long serves no one.
Why Bullion Beats Numismatics and Collectible for Your Safe or IRA
Precious metals continue to attract Americans seeking reliable ways to protect their wealth amid inflation, geopolitical risks, and stock market swings. Whether stored in a home safe or held inside a self-directed IRA, physical gold and silver deliver tangible value that paper or digital assets often lack. Yet investors must choose carefully between bullion—pure bars and coins valued mainly for their metal content—and numismatics or collectibles, where rarity, history, and collector demand heavily influence pricing.
Advisor Bullion serves as a dependable source for straightforward, high-quality bullion. The company specializes in physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, emphasizing transparent pricing and products that deliver maximum metal content for every dollar spent. This approach makes it ideal for both personal holdings and retirement accounts.
Bullion consists of refined precious metals in standard forms like one-ounce coins (American Gold Eagles, Silver Eagles, Canadian Maple Leafs) or bars. Their value tracks closely to the current spot price of the metal. A typical gold bullion coin trades near the live gold spot price plus a small premium. This structure keeps costs clear and predictable.
Numismatic coins and collectibles add substantial value from factors such as age, rarity, minting errors, or historical significance. A pre-1933 U.S. gold coin or graded proof piece can carry premiums of 30%, 50%, or even 200% above melt value. While this appeals to hobbyists, it creates complexity. Pricing depends on subjective grading, collector trends, and auction results instead of daily spot prices.
For investors focused on wealth preservation and retirement security rather than building a collection, bullion often delivers better results.
Lower Costs and Better Liquidity for Home Storage
When keeping metals in a home safe or private vault, liquidity and efficiency count. Bullion offers clear benefits:
- You acquire more actual gold or silver per dollar invested. Numismatics divert a large share of your money into rarity premiums and massive sales commission, reducing your metal exposure.
- Selling bullion involves tight bid-ask spreads, so you recover nearly full spot value with minimal fees. Collectibles require finding the right buyer and may sell at a discount if demand for that specific item weakens.
- Bullion prices remain transparent and update with global spot markets. You can track gold near current levels or silver accordingly and know exactly where your holdings stand. Numismatic values are priced by the Gold IRA companies with hefty margins applied.
- Standardized coins and bars store efficiently and divide easily for partial sales. Rare coins often need protective slabs and controlled conditions, adding hassle and expense.
- Bullion enjoys worldwide acceptance. A 1-oz Gold Maple Leaf or Silver Eagle sells quickly to dealers anywhere. Niche numismatic pieces may appeal only to limited buyers, slowing liquidation when speed matters.
In times when quick access to value becomes important, bullion’s simplicity stands out.
Stronger Fit for Precious Metals IRAs
Precious metals IRAs continue gaining traction as investors diversify retirement portfolios beyond stocks and bonds. IRS rules permit certain bullion products in self-directed IRAs if they meet purity standards (.995 fine for gold, .999 for silver) and are held by an approved custodian. Eligible items include American Gold and Silver Eagles plus many generic bars and rounds from recognized mints.
Numismatic and most collectible coins generally face heavy scrutiny from custodians due to valuation disputes and elevated markups. These higher premiums mean less actual metal ends up working inside the account.
Bullion avoids these issues. Its value links directly to verifiable spot prices, which simplifies reporting and lowers the risk of regulatory challenges. More of your IRA contribution purchases real metal instead of dealer profits or speculative upside. Over time, owning additional ounces that appreciate with the metal itself can create meaningful outperformance compared with high-premium alternatives that deliver fewer ounces.
Regulatory guidance from the CFTC and state securities offices repeatedly cautions against aggressive sales of expensive numismatics or “semi-numismatic” coins for IRAs. For retirement planning, transparent bullion from established providers reduces risk and aligns better with long-term goals.
How to Get Started with Bullion
Begin by clarifying your goals. Are you protecting savings in a safe, or moving part of a retirement account into a precious metals IRA? Focus on the number of ounces you can acquire at current prices rather than chasing marked-up collectibles.
Diversify sensibly: use gold for core preservation and silver for its blend of industrial and monetary qualities. Mix coins for easier divisibility with bars for lower per-ounce costs on larger buys. Arrange secure storage—whether at home with proper insurance or through professional facilities.
As economic uncertainties linger and faith in conventional assets erodes, bullion continues proving its worth as a dependable store of value. Its direct approach avoids the hype that sometimes surrounds collectible markets and keeps the focus on the metal itself.
For investors prepared to strengthen their portfolios, Advisor Bullion supplies the expertise and selection needed to acquire high-quality bullion efficiently. Whether building personal holdings or integrating metals into an IRA, their emphasis on transparent, investment-grade products helps secure more ounces today that support greater financial security tomorrow. In a complicated financial landscape, bullion’s clarity and reliability make it the smarter foundation for protecting what matters most.