(DCNF)—The U.S. is currently facing a continuously worsening fertility crisis, according to analysts.
While the nation’s fertility rate has been declining for decades, it dropped to a new record low in 2025. Experts told the Daily Caller News Foundation that deregulation, improving fertility care and bringing down costs related to raising children could help boost the declining birth rate.
The U.S. general fertility rate was 53.1 births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 44 in 2025, down from 53.8 in 2024, according to National Center for Health Statistics data published in April.
“While there are many factors contributing to the declining birth rate, three reasons stand out to me: First, there is the influence of smart phones and social media,” Heritage Foundation Senior Policy Analyst Emma Water told the DCNF. “Since the introduction of the iPhone, [every] country has seen a marked decline in births that doesn’t look like it is reversing any time soon, including the U.S. … we are seeing more men and women replace meaningful time with others with scrolling, screen addictions, or a sense that there is too much to be done.”
“Second, we cannot discount the role of abortion, birth control, and reproductive technologies,” Waters said. “While we can have a meaningful conversation about the morality of each separately, the statistics don’t lie: The last year that the birth rate was above replacement was 1972, and since the Supreme Court decision in Roe v. Wade erroneously created a constitutional right to abortion in 1973, the birth rate has never recovered.”
Waters added that a drop in U.S. marriage rates is one of the “primary drivers of declining birth rates.”
The U.S. marriage rate dropped to a 140-year low in 2019 and has yet to fully bounce back, The New York Times reported. Less than half of American households were married couples in 2025, marking a significant decrease from 50 years earlier, according to U.S. Census Bureau estimates.
Prioritizing infertility treatment and early diagnosis could help boost the U.S. fertility rate, according to Waters.
“The first is to promote restorative reproductive medicine, or root cause care for infertility and reproductive health conditions, something that is part of the Trump administration’s ‘Excepted Fertility Benefits’ Department of Labor rule, but will require far greater effort and support to build out sufficiently,” she explained. “Rates of infertility are on the rise [among] Americans in the last two decades, and the delay in diagnosis and treatment for conditions such as endometriosis and male-factor infertility has made it much harder for Americans to receive the care they need to conceive children.”
Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Administrator Mehmet Oz claimed during a May 11 White House event that part of the U.S. population is currently “underbabied.” Meanwhile, Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. recently warned that the nation’s declining birth rate has become an “existential crisis” which poses a “threat” to the economy and national security.
The pregnancy-related mortality ratio in the U.S. rose 22.8% between 2000 and 2009 before stabilizing at about 660 deaths per year, according to a July 2025 Commonwealth Fund report. The report also found the total number of deaths nearly doubled between 2019 and 2021, reaching 1,222, largely due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
“Many people now prefer smaller families because of the opportunity costs: children compete with careers, leisure, consumption, and lifestyle flexibility, leading many people to choose fewer kids,” Cato Institute Policy Analyst Chelsea Follett told the DCNF. “Shifting the cost-benefit calculus toward larger families requires increasing the value people place on having children or reducing the costs of raising them.”
“Baby bonuses and other direct government payments are the wrong response to falling birth rates,” Follett said. “Evidence from abroad shows that such family subsidies yield only modest gains at enormous fiscal cost. Research suggests that raising U.S. fertility by just 0.2 births per woman could require around $250 billion in annual subsidies, roughly equal to the U.S. Army’s annual budget. And without deregulation of family-related goods and services, subsidies risk being absorbed into higher prices. A better approach is deregulatory reform to lower the cost of the goods and services that families rely on.”
Many Americans have been grappling with major affordability challenges related to raising children. The average 18-year cost of raising a child rose to $303,418 in 2024 after tax exemptions and credits, according to a LendingTree analysis.
The Trump administration has announced several new initiatives aiming to provide resources and benefits for American families in recent months. It unveiled a new proposed rule on May 10 that would create “a new category of limited excepted benefits to further expand the ability of employers to offer meaningful fertility benefits to their employees.”
President Donald Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act created new tax-advantaged savings and investment accounts for U.S. children called Trump Accounts, according to a White House fact sheet.
Additionally, HHS launched Moms.gov on May 10, a new online resource aiming to offer “guidance and information to support the health and well-being of mothers and their families.”
“Through the newly launched Moms.gov, HHS provides resources for couples planning to start or grow their families, including preconception health information and educational materials on fertility awareness-based methods (FABMs),” an agency spokesperson told the DCNF in a statement on Thursday. “Additionally, as stated in the MAHA Strategy, HHS will launch a MAHA education campaign to improve health and fertility in women and men looking to start a family. This will influence adolescent health through early adoption of lifestyles that help avoid the development of root cause issues that impact adult fertility.”
“The Office of Population Affairs released a Title X Notice of Funding Opportunity (NOFO) for 2027 that includes a focus on addressing infertility for men and women,” the spokesperson added. “The NOFO acknowledges the nation’s growing infertility crisis and provides an outline for services that may assist with addressing this crisis.”
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Two Storms, One Harvest
Every food crisis in living memory has been a one-shock event. The 2008 price spike was a commodity bubble. The 2020 shortages were a logistics failure. The 2022 grain scare was a war on one exporter’s ports. Each time, the system bent, adjusted, and recovered, and each time the experts assured us afterward that global markets are simply too big and too diversified to fail.
What nobody in Washington seems eager to discuss is that 2026 is shaping up to be something the modern food system has never actually faced. Two independent shocks, one climatic and one geopolitical, are converging on the same harvest cycle at the same time. Not sequentially. Simultaneously.
Start with the weather. The Pacific Ocean is currently building toward what forecasters now openly call a record event. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of at least a strong El Niño near 88 percent, with roughly two in three odds it reaches “very strong” status, the tier reserved for perhaps three or four events in the entire satellite era. Every major global model now projects a median peak in Super El Niño territory, and most of them project it exceeding the 2015-16 event, which until now held the modern record. Sea surface anomalies were already brushing the super threshold in mid-July, months before these events normally peak. The atmosphere has already shifted into El Niño mode, and the event is forecast to crest in late fall and early winter.
This is not about “climate change.” It’s about the standard cycles of weather, and the cycle we’re currently in is one that has likely devastated societies in the past. We’re better prepared as a society today, but not all Americans are equally prepared.
Serious households have started doing the quiet math on their own. Grocery bills tell part of the story, and the forecast maps tell the rest, which is why long-term food storage has moved from fringe hobby to mainstream line item in the family budget, with established suppliers like Heaven’s Harvest seeing demand from people who five years ago would have rolled their eyes at the idea. That instinct is not paranoia. It is pattern recognition, and the pattern is worth walking through carefully.
Editor’s Note: Heaven’s Harvest IS a sponsor, but the warnings of this article are real and would be written even if we didn’t have a survival food sponsor. With that said, those who take advantage of what they offer can use promo code “Patriot” for 15% off.
The Fertilizer Clock Is Already Running
While the Pacific warms, the second shock has been unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict with Iran turned the world’s most important energy chokepoint into a contested waterway, and the consequences reach far beyond the gas pump. Roughly a third of global fertilizer trade moves through Hormuz, and the disruption sent urea prices up 86 percent year over year by March, with a 53 percent jump in a single month.
The World Bank projects energy prices rising about 24 percent in 2026 and fertilizer about 31 percent. By its own accounting, fertilizer prices ran 35 percent higher in the first five months of this year than the same period last year.
Here is the mechanism the nightly news will not explain. Fertilizer is not a grocery item. It is a time-delayed input. The nitrogen a farmer in Iowa or Punjab could not afford to apply this spring does not show up as a problem this spring. It shows up as a thinner harvest six to twelve months later.
The World Bank’s own food security brief concedes that the effects of reduced applications earlier this season “are likely to become visible only later in harvest outcomes.” Translate that from institutional language into plain English and it means this. The damage is already done, it is already in the ground, and we are simply waiting for it to arrive on the shelf.
Now check the calendar. Six to twelve months from the spring planting season lands us squarely in late 2026 and early 2027. Which is precisely when the strongest El Niño in the instrumental record is forecast to peak, bringing its signature droughts to Southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa, northern Brazil, and South Asia, the very regions that grow the world’s rice, sugar, and oilseeds.
The World Bank warns openly that a strong El Niño “could disrupt multiple crop belts simultaneously” on top of the conflict-driven input costs. Their baseline projection assumes the Middle East disruptions ease by autumn. What in the last two years of Middle East history suggests that assumption is safe?
The System Has No Slack Left
The comfortable answer is that global markets always adjust. But adjustment requires slack, and the slack is gone. Global cereal production is expected to decline from last year’s records even before El Niño does its work. The UN World Food Programme, hardly a den of right-wing preppers, is calling this the most significant disruption to its supply chains since Covid and the invasion of Ukraine, and its supply chain director put the stakes bluntly.
Today’s supply chain challenges are tomorrow’s hunger crisis.
There is also a political dimension that markets cannot price. When food gets scarce, governments do not behave like economists. They behave like politicians. Export bans, hoarding mandates, and panic buying at the national level turned the modest rice shortfall of 2008 into a global crisis, and analysts are already warning that import-dependent nations are the first dominoes.
The 2015-16 Super El Niño, a far weaker event than what is now forecast, threw tens of millions into food stress across Africa and Asia. This one is projected to be stronger, and it arrives with fertilizer already rationed by price and shipping lanes already contested by missiles.
What Joseph Knew
Scripture does not treat preparation for lean years as faithlessness. It treats it as wisdom delivered in advance to those willing to act on it.
Behold, there come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of Egypt: And there shall arise after them seven years of famine; and all the plenty shall be forgotten in the land of Egypt.
Joseph did not respond to that warning with a hashtag or a committee. He stored grain during the years of abundance, and when the famine came, Egypt stood while its neighbors begged. The lesson is not that famine is certain. It is that the time to prepare is precisely when preparation still looks optional.
Nobody who filled a pantry in a year of plenty has ever regretted it, and nobody standing in an empty aisle has ever been glad he waited for certainty.
None of this calls for panic, and panic is the enemy of sound judgment anyway. It calls for the same unglamorous prudence our grandparents considered ordinary. Keep some cash margin, know your local growers, and put real food in deep storage while it is cheap and available, because the entire arc of this story is that cheap and available is a closing window.
Families looking for a straightforward place to start can visit Heaven’s Harvest and use promo code Patriot for 15 percent off long-term storable food. The forecasts may yet soften, the strait may yet reopen, and we should pray they do. But hope is a fine thing to hold and a foolish thing to eat.