A survey released this week from A2 Insights has Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears trailing Democrat Abigail Spanberger by just three points in Virginia’s gubernatorial election, putting the contest firmly within the margin of error as early voting picks up steam. The poll, taken September 26-28 among likely voters, pegs Spanberger at 47.7 percent and Earle-Sears at 44.6 percent, with about 6 percent undecided.
This marks a significant shift from earlier surveys, like one from Christopher Newport University’s Wason Center in mid-September that had Spanberger ahead by 12 points, or an Emerson College/The Hill poll from late September showing her with a 10-point edge.
The narrowing margin arrives amid a series of stumbles for Spanberger, whose campaign has drawn fire for heated rhetoric and murky positions on key issues. At several events last month, she urged crowds to “let your rage fuel you,” a call that Earle-Sears countered directly by reminding Virginians of their state’s longstanding motto.
“Virginia is for lovers — not rage,” Earle-Sears declared, framing her bid around bringing people together rather than stoking division. This contrast has resonated in a state still healing from recent political battles, where voters appear weary of inflammatory language that could deepen divides.
Spanberger’s handling of transgender policies has also come under scrutiny, particularly her reluctance to take a firm stand on biological males in women’s sports and restrooms. When pressed, she described previous state approaches as handling cases on a “one-by-one basis,” but avoided a straightforward response. Earle-Sears, in contrast, has been unequivocal in her opposition, arguing that such policies protect women’s safety and fairness in athletics. Videos of Spanberger dodging questions on this topic have circulated widely online, boosting Earle-Sears’s visibility and allowing her to portray herself as more accessible and direct with voters.
Endorsements and staff behavior have added to Spanberger’s challenges. Chesterfield County School Board member Dot Heffron, an early backer, faced calls for resignation from Gov. Glenn Youngkin after she praised the idea of assassinating Turning Point USA founder Charlie Kirk. Spanberger eventually distanced herself, condemning “any efforts to justify or minimize” political violence. But the damage lingered when a campaign staffer reportedly posted “F around and find out” in response to Kirk’s hypothetical death, prompting Earle-Sears and Virginia Republicans to demand accountability. These incidents have painted Spanberger’s team as tolerant of extreme views, alienating moderates who prioritize civility.
Immigration stands out as another dividing line. Spanberger has pledged to repeal Youngkin’s executive order mandating local cooperation with ICE, a move that would effectively make Virginia a sanctuary for illegal immigrants. Youngkin fired back, accusing her of putting “dangerous criminals” ahead of public safety. Earle-Sears has echoed this, vowing to maintain tough enforcement to shield communities from crime linked to open borders.
President Donald Trump weighed in as well, blasting Spanberger for backing “men in women’s sports” and “open borders,” warnings that Earle-Sears has amplified to rally conservative voters concerned about family values and security.
Even as Spanberger maintains a fundraising lead—outspending Earle-Sears two-to-one to blanket the airwaves—signs point to Republican momentum. Early voting data from the Virginia Public Access Project shows ballots cast so far doubling the pace from 2021, with nearly half coming from GOP-leaning districts. Social media sentiment analysis by Impact Social reveals Earle-Sears enjoying a +18 net rating, while Spanberger sits at -28, partly because Democrats are fixated on criticizing Trump instead of building enthusiasm for their candidate.
As the analysis notes, “venting against Trump while failing to support the Democratic candidate or attack their opponent” limits their reach, adding that “relying on Trump as a mobilizing foil can only go so far. If Democrats cannot channel that oppositional energy into genuine support for their own candidates, they risk losing these contests.”
Earle-Sears’s campaign reset over the summer, including staff changes and a sharper focus on education and parental rights in northern Virginia suburbs, mirrors the strategy that propelled Youngkin to victory in 2021. A half-million-dollar donation from BET co-founder Robert L. Johnson, following a racist protest sign aimed at Earle-Sears during an Arlington school board meeting, has further energized her efforts. Spanberger, a former CIA officer, has leaned on endorsements like the Virginia Police Benevolent Association and appeals to independents, but shifts in voter support—such as her growing edge among younger demographics in the Emerson poll—haven’t fully offset the tightening overall race.
With November 4 approaching, Virginia’s off-year election could signal broader trends for 2026. Earle-Sears’s surge suggests Republicans have a real shot at holding the governor’s mansion, especially if they continue capitalizing on cultural flashpoints and turnout advantages.
