(Hotair)—Yesterday, Nate Cohn at the NY Times published a story confirming something he’d written about months ago. Kamala Harris didn’t lose the election because of low Democratic turnout. On the contrary, if the turnout had been higher she still would not have won.
In the wake of last November’s election, many Democrats blamed low turnout for Kamala Harris’s defeat…
Newly available data, based on authoritative voter turnout records, suggests that if anything, President Trump would have done even better if everyone had voted.
The new data, including a new study from Pew Research released Thursday, instead offers a more dispiriting explanation for Democrats: Young, nonwhite and irregular voters defected by the millions to Mr. Trump, costing Ms. Harris both the Electoral College and the popular vote.
This really has been an argument on the left since last November’s defeat. Traditionally, the argument has always been that higher turnout helps Democrats and lower turnout helps Republicans. Last year, that consensus turned into a battle between progressives and moderates. The progressives argued that Harris lost because she didn’t excite the Democratic base with progressive policy promises and, as a result, many Democrats stayed home. The moderates argued something very different: That progressives scared away swing-voters with their extreme positions and some of those voters wound up voting for Trump.
It has been clear (to many of us) since November that the moderates were right on the facts. The issue in this election was not uninspired Dems staying home, it was moderates deciding the party had moved too far left on some issues (immigration, trans rights) and jumping ship. Nevertheless, they party has essentially ignored the autopsy results from the last election and continues doubling down with left-wing extremism. The primary win for Zohran Mamdani in New York is just the latest example.
In any case, the newly released data confirms that no amount of higher turnout would have helped Kamala Harris. There was no scenario in which she could have won.
Nonvoters preferred Mr. Trump, even if only narrowly. None show Ms. Harris winning nonvoters by the wide margin she would have needed to overcome her deficit among those who turned out.
And with that in mind, let’s jump to a story published today by Politico. It’s about Kamala Harris trying to ramp up her run for governor of California. But for some reason, no one is excited by the prospect.
- Read More: hotair.com