Editor’s Note: The current trajectory of both the war and the economy do NOT point to the fulfillment of concerns in the article below by Michael Snyder. It’s important to understand that because economic sentiment is arguably the most powerful influencer when it comes to fiscal realities. With that said, we need to be sober and aware of the possibilities, and given the multitude of factors that are at play it would be imprudent to dismiss these concerns outright. Know what they are, but don’t panic just because some people are “projecting” their fears onto us. Here’s Michael…
(The Economic Collapse Blog)—A worst-case scenario could be just weeks away. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has been essentially paralyzed by the war with Iran, and there is a lot of speculation that the Houthis could soon bring commercial traffic through the Red Sea to a screeching halt. If such a scenario actually materializes, it would be catastrophic for the global economy.
The good news is that so far we are not witnessing widespread panic among investors. Most of them still seem to believe that this crisis is just temporary. So even though the price of oil is up over 40 percent since the start of the war, the overall global financial system is still relatively stable at this stage…
The S&P 500 is only down 3% so far this year and 5% off its all-time high, still far from reaching bear market territory or even a correction, suggesting investors aren’t panicking yet about the U.S.-Israel war on Iran. But that could change soon.
To be sure, oil prices have soared more than 40% since the war began two weeks ago and are up nearly 70% year to date. But they remain below the peak seen after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, despite one-fifth of the world’s oil supplies being bottled up by Iran’s de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Of course it certainly wouldn’t take much to push the financial markets over the edge.
Dan Alamariu, the chief geopolitical strategist at Alpine Macro, is warning that if this war with Iran persists we could see “peak war panic” in approximately 1 to 3 weeks…
Alamariu acknowledged there’s a growing chance that the war lasts longer than his two-month outlook, and the Strait of Hormuz would likely remain closed for the duration. That means Brent crude prices will stay above $100 a barrel and possibly even top $150. And yet, the market hasn’t reached maximum panic yet.
“Peak war panic is more likely to hit in the next 1 to 3 weeks,” he predicted. “The longer the conflict lasts, the more investors price in economic damage.”
Using oil prices as a gauge for market panics, crude has historically peaked four to eight weeks into similar conflicts, according to Alamariu. The Iran war has now entered its third week.
If the price of oil surpasses $150 a barrel and stays there for an extended period of time, it will cause widespread panic.
I have no doubt about that at all.
What investors would really like to see is an end to the war, but an end to the war is not even on the horizon at this stage…
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Sunday that “we don’t see any reason why we should talk with Americans” as President Trump has claimed Iran is seeking a deal to end the war between the U.S. and Iran.
“We never asked for a ceasefire, and we have never asked even for negotiation,” Araghchi said on “Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan.”
As the war entered its third week, Mr. Trump has claimed in recent days that Iran wants to reach a deal. The president said in a post on Truth Social late Friday that Iran “is totally defeated and wants a deal – But not a deal that I would accept!” On Saturday, he told NBC News that “Iran wants to make a deal, and I don’t want to make it because the terms aren’t good enough yet.”
As long as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is paralyzed, there is no way that the war will end.
An IDF spokesperson is telling us the the Israelis are gearing up “for at least three more weeks of operations”…
An Israel Defense Forces (IDF) spokesperson said the military is preparing for at least three more weeks of operations against Iran and still has ‘thousands of targets’ remaining.
Brigadier General Effie Defrin told CNN that Israeli forces are coordinating closely with the United States and have plans extending beyond the Jewish holiday of Passover.
‘We have thousands of targets ahead,’ Defrin said. ‘We are ready, in coordination with our US allies, with plans through at least the Jewish holiday of Passover, about three weeks from now.’
Let us hope that the war will be over in just a matter of weeks.
But from where I am sitting, I think that is a very optimistic target.
There are so many ways that this war could become so much worse.
For example, if the Houthis were to shut down commercial traffic through the Red Sea by blocking the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, we really would be facing a nightmare scenario that would be unlike anything we have ever seen before…
Alamariu noted that it’s likely Iran’s Houthi allies in Yemen will try to close the Red Sea to commercial shipping, heaping additional economic pain on top of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
“A simultaneous two-strait disruption would compound the shock, impacting the additional ~5 mb/d oil flows that normally transit the Bab el-Mandeb and impairing a main Europe-Asia trade route,” he warned. “This could stoke inflation further, especially in Europe.”
If the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait were blocked simultaneously, hardly anything would be getting out of Saudi Arabia or other Gulf countries.
I have already written much about oil, natural gas and fertilizer, but so many other industries would be deeply affected as well.
For example, the largest aluminum smelter in the entire world has just been forced to reduce its output…
The world’s largest single-site aluminium smelter in the Middle East cut its output by about 20% on Sunday, marking yet another troubling development for the global economy. The disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is no longer just an energy story – it’s now spreading into industrial metals. These second- and third-order effects could soon disrupt global supply chains and tighten aluminium availability, thus pressuring prices higher.
Bloomberg reports that Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) began a controlled, safe shutdown of three reduction lines on Sunday to preserve business continuity amid heavily disrupted maritime shipping routes through the Hormuz chokepoint.
The global economy has become far more integrated than most people realize.
When the price of oil rises, it rises for everyone.
And the pain is already starting to be felt throughout the entire U.S. economy…
Uber and Lyft drivers told us they’re getting more selective about which rides they accept as gas prices rise. That’s because Uber and Lyft control fares, meaning drivers can’t raise prices when their operating costs go up. Some gig drivers are rejecting shorter, lower-paying trips that burn fuel and instead are chasing longer fares that make the math work.
Meanwhile, EV drivers are having a moment. As gas-powered drivers wince at the pump, electric vehicle owners are taking what some have called a “victory lap.” Charging costs haven’t surged in step with oil prices. This is giving EV drivers, including those on rideshare platforms, a meaningful cost advantage.
Higher gas prices are also playing a role in the return-to-office debate. For people who drive to work, pricier fill-ups mean less money in their pockets for everything else.
“When gas prices spike, commuting effectively becomes a pay cut,” one chief operating officer told us.
If this war keeps going for a while, things will get a lot worse.
Just about everything that we purchase on a regular basis is affected by the price of oil, and that includes food.
It takes energy to grow food, and it takes energy to transport food to the stores.
If the price of oil goes up to $150 a barrel and stays there, it is going to become much more expensive to go to the grocery store.
Already, the average price of ground beef has risen almost 20 percent over the past year…
The average price of ground beef, 100% beef, excluding round, chuck, and sirloin, and excluding preformed patties, finally took a breather in February and barely budged, rising by just 0.2%, after spiking month after month almost uninterrupted for a whole year.
At $6.74 per pound, the average price is up by nearly 20% from a year ago and by 73% from January 2020.
By disrupting traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the Iranians are hitting us where it hurts.
They know that U.S. consumers do not have a very high tolerance for pain.
So they figure that they can sit back and wait for the pain to reach unendurable levels.
But I don’t think that President Trump is going to end this war until he breaks Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz.
That could take a while, and so it appears that this crisis will be with us for quite some time.
Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.
Safeguarding Your American Dream: Discover the Power of America First Healthcare
In today’s economy, healthcare costs remain one of the biggest threats to financial stability and family security. Americans work hard to build a better life, yet rising medical expenses can quickly erode savings, force tough trade-offs, and even push families toward debt or bankruptcy. Medical bills continue to rank as the leading cause of personal bankruptcy in the United States, with millions facing underinsurance or unexpected out-of-pocket burdens that no one plans for. Many turn to government-run marketplace plans under the Affordable Care Act, hoping for relief, only to discover that what appears affordable on paper often delivers higher long-term costs, limited real protection, and coverage that may not align with personal values or family needs.
America First Healthcare stands out as a private insurance agency dedicated to helping conservatives and families secure better coverage and better rates through customized, values-aligned options. By conducting free insurance reviews, the agency uncovers hidden gaps in existing policies and connects clients with private alternatives that emphasize personal responsibility, small-government principles, and genuine affordability—often delivering up to 20% savings while providing stronger protection for the American Dream.
The allure of marketplace plans is easy to understand: open enrollment periods, premium tax credits for many households, and the promise of “comprehensive” benefits mandated by law. Yet recent data reveals a different reality, especially after the expiration of enhanced premium subsidies at the end of 2025. Enrollment for 2026 dropped by more than one million people compared to the prior year, with many shifting to lower-tier bronze plans to keep monthly premiums manageable.
These plans feature significantly higher deductibles—averaging around $7,500 nationally—and greater cost-sharing requirements. Families who once paid modest amounts after subsidies now face average premium increases of $65 or more per month, even as they accept plans that leave them responsible for thousands in upfront costs before meaningful coverage kicks in.
High deductibles create a dangerous barrier to care. Studies show that people in such plans are less likely to seek timely treatment for chronic conditions, attend preventive screenings, or fill necessary prescriptions. A seemingly minor illness or injury can balloon into major expenses when patients delay care until problems worsen. For a family of four, a single hospitalization, cancer diagnosis, or unexpected surgery can easily exceed the deductible, triggering coinsurance and out-of-pocket maximums that still leave substantial bills. One recent analysis noted that some proposed changes could push family deductibles toward $31,000 in future years, further exposing households to financial risk.
Beyond the numbers, marketplace plans often carry structural limitations. Coverage for certain critical services may include waiting periods or narrower networks that restrict access to preferred doctors and specialists. Preventive care is required to be covered without cost-sharing, but everything else—lab work, imaging, specialist visits, or ongoing treatment—typically waits until the deductible is met. This reactive model contrasts sharply with the proactive, holistic approach many families prefer, especially those focused on wellness, early intervention, and maintaining health to enjoy life rather than merely reacting to illness.
Values alignment represents another growing concern. Government-influenced plans operate within a framework shaped by federal mandates and political priorities that may not reflect conservative principles of limited government, personal freedom, and ethical stewardship. Families who want to direct their healthcare dollars toward providers and benefits that honor traditional values sometimes find marketplace options feel misaligned, forcing a compromise between affordability and conviction.
Private alternatives, by contrast, offer year-round flexibility without the restrictions of open enrollment windows. Independent agents can shop across a wider range of carriers to design plans tailored to specific family needs—whether that means lower deductibles for frequent medical users, broader provider networks, or add-ons that support wellness and preventive services from day one. Clients frequently report more stable premiums that do not automatically escalate each year, along with genuine cost savings once the full picture of deductibles, copays, and coverage depth is considered.
Take the experience of real families who made the switch. Amanda C. shared that her new plan felt “way better” than what she had through the marketplace. Johnny Y. noted his previous coverage kept increasing annually until he found a more stable private option. Sofia S. expressed delight with her plan and began recommending it to others. These stories echo a common theme: when families move beyond one-size-fits-all government marketplaces, they often discover customized protection that better safeguards both health and finances.
Founder Jordan Sarmiento’s own journey underscores the stakes. In 2021, a six-day hospitalization generated a $95,000 bill. Under a well-structured private “Conservative Care Coverage” plan, his out-of-pocket responsibility would have been just $500. That stark difference illustrates how thoughtful planning and private options can prevent a medical event from becoming a financial catastrophe.
Practical steps exist for anyone questioning their current coverage. Start with a no-obligation review of your existing policy to identify gaps—high deductibles, limited critical-care benefits, or escalating premiums. Compare total projected costs (premiums plus potential out-of-pocket expenses) rather than monthly premiums alone. Consider family health history, anticipated needs, and lifestyle priorities. Private agencies can present side-by-side options that include stronger wellness incentives, broader access, and plans built on shared values of self-reliance and freedom.
In an era when healthcare inflation continues to outpace general cost-of-living increases, relying solely on marketplace solutions carries growing risk. Families who proactively explore private alternatives frequently achieve meaningful savings while gaining peace of mind that their coverage truly works when needed most.
America First Healthcare makes this exploration straightforward through its free review process. Families and individuals receive personalized guidance to close coverage holes, reduce unnecessary expenses, and secure plans that align with conservative principles—protecting wallets, health, and the American Dream without government overreach. Many who complete a review discover they can enjoy better benefits for less, often saving up to 20% while gaining the customization and stability that marketplace plans struggle to deliver.
Ultimately, protecting your family’s future requires looking beyond the marketing of “affordable” government options. By understanding the long-term costs hidden in high deductibles, shifting coverage tiers, and values mismatches, Americans can make empowered choices. Private, values-driven insurance offers a smarter path—one that rewards diligence, supports wellness, and delivers real security. For those ready to move beyond the limitations of traditional marketplace plans, a simple review can reveal options designed to serve families, not bureaucracies. The American Dream thrives when individuals and families retain control over their healthcare decisions, and thoughtful private coverage plays a vital role in making that possible.