(Zero Hedge)—The U.S. beef industry operates on 12-year herd cycles, with the last herd low in 2014 and the beef packer margin trough in 2015. The current herd liquidation began in 2019, and as of the start of 2025, the nation’s cattle herd stands at 86.7 million, the lowest level since the 1950s.
Herd rebuilding trends may begin soon, according to Goldman analysts Leah Jordan and Eli Thompson, who cited support from high calf prices and low feed costs, though herds appear tight for the foreseeable future. They expect this dynamic to keep beef packer margins depressed due to reduced slaughter volumes and elevated live cattle prices.
Beef cycles typically last about twelve years on average, looking at trough-to-trough in the cattle herd. The prior trough in the herd occurred in 2014, while the prior trough in beef packer margins occurred in 2015. The current herd liquidation cycle began in 2019, with the herd tracking at ~86.7mm as of January 1, 2025, the lowest level since the 1950s. Herd rebuilding may already be underway, or is likely soon, noting supportive industry conditions (high calf prices and low feed costs), which should further constrain supply in the near-term, partially offset by record weights for cattle on feed.
As a result, we expect beef packer margins to remain depressed in the near-term due to lower slaughter volumes and high live cattle prices. That said, herd retention will set up the industry better for the longer term, and effectively starts the clock for more normalized margins in about two years given the breeding timeline, with better visibility likely in a few quarters.
TSN’s beef operating margins track with industry packer margins, while its stock has a moderate correlation as well, noting the stock started to work in advance of the beef-driven earnings recovery in 2016. Additionally, the relationship has already started to decouple in the current cycle, owing to the strength of its diversified business mix across proteins (including prepared foods with greater margin stability).
Analysts posed the question: “When will the beef cycle turn?” — one we’ve been asking at ZeroHedge, too.
Here’s a visual breakdown of the beef industry’s turning points, as charted by the analysts:
“We also believe the cyclical low in beef profitability is creating an attractive entry point for patient investors in Buy-rated TSN,” the analysts noted.
During Tyson Foods’ earnings call in early May, Brady Stewart—head of Tyson’s beef and pork supply chains—offered insights into what may be the emerging bottom in U.S. cattle supplies, which have fallen to their lowest levels in over 70 years. His comments came in response to a question from one Wall Street analyst.
Stewart explained that while cattle supply remains down year-over-year, record-high animal weights are helping to offset the decline in volume. He added that the U.S. cattle industry is likely at or near the bottom of its inventory cycle, with herd levels now at a 73-year low.
At the start of the year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s annual Cattle Inventory report revealed that the nation’s cattle supply had fallen to a 73-year low, totaling about 86.7 million head.
At the supermarket, USDA data from the end of May showed the average price for a pound of ground beef reached yet another record high of nearly $6 a pound.
While analysts expect a cyclical low in the beef cycle, that doesn’t mean the industry is out of the woods just yet—tight supplies and elevated prices are likely to persist for years. Now is the time for consumers to secure local supply chains, even if that means getting to know the rancher down the road.
The rise of the ‘MAHA’ movement is accelerating this shift, as more Americans turn to clean, locally raised beef and reject products from globalist-owned food conglomerates.
Why the National Debt Is the Looming Threat to Your Retirement Plans
The Hidden Crisis No One Is Talking About
Every day, headlines warn about inflation, market volatility, and global instability—but the greatest looming threat to your retirement might be something far more fundamental: America’s skyrocketing national debt.
You can learn more about how the national debt affects you by reading this 3-minute report titled, “Debt Will Hit $40T in 2026: Prepare Your Retirement Now“.
With debt growing faster than most Americans can possibly fathom, the government’s borrowing habits have reached historic—and dangerous—levels. To cover spending, Washington is making moves with their budget packages, tariffs, and taxes. Is it enough? No. It’s not even close to what would be necessary to stop out-of-control debt, let alone reverse it.
How Debt Erodes Your Nest Egg
There are only so many levers government and the Federal Reserve can pull to try to protect Americans, assuming that’s even a top priority for them. Unfortunately, pulling one level to relive one pressure invariably adds pressure from another direction. This is why prices keep going up even as inflation reportedly slows.
For retirees and pre-retirees, that’s a perfect storm. The dollars you’ve worked hard to save lose value, and your cost of living increases while your investments lag behind.
If you’re relying solely on paper-based assets—stocks, bonds, or mutual funds—you’re essentially tied to the same system that’s creating the problem. It’s a system that was designed to work well in the 20th century, not in today’s world with people living longer and the dollar rapidly losing value.
This is why the 3-minute report, “Debt Will Hit $40T in 2026: Prepare Your Retirement Now,” is so important.
The Precious Metals Hedge
Thousands of Americans are looking for a tangible, time-tested hedge: physical gold and silver.
Unlike paper assets, precious metals aren’t dependent on government policy or the stock market’s mood swings. They’re real, finite resources that have maintained value for thousands of years through wars, recessions, and inflationary periods.
In fact, during times of high inflation and fiscal instability, gold often performs its best—because it’s seen as a store of value when faith in the dollar weakens. This is why prices have skyrocketed this year and are expected by many economists to continue going up in the future.
Take Control with a Gold IRA
One of the most effective ways to protect your retirement from national debt fallout is through a self-directed Gold IRA. This IRS-approved account lets you hold physical gold and silver within your retirement portfolio, giving you:
- Direct ownership of your assets
- A hedge against inflation and dollar decline
- The control to diversify beyond Wall Street
Augusta Precious Metals specializes in helping Americans just like you take this step with confidence. The company has earned a strong reputation for transparency, education, and personalized service—making it one of the most trusted names in the industry.
The Next Step: Secure Your Financial Future
Augusta Precious Metals has helped thousands of Americans with at least $50,000 to invest from their IRAs, 401(K)s, TSPs, and other retirement accounts safeguard their savings through precious metals.
If you’re concerned about what the rising national debt could mean for your future, now is the time to act.
Read this 3-minute report titled, “Debt Will Hit $40T in 2026: Prepare Your Retirement Now“ and learn the simple steps you can take to protect your retirement.