(The Epoch Times)—Goldman Sachs raised its December 2026 gold price forecast by $600 to $4,900 per ounce, citing surging exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows in Western markets and sustained accumulation of the yellow metal by central banks.
The investment bank’s latest gold price prediction, made in an Oct. 7 client note, marks a significant upgrade to its prior forecast, which called for a rally to $4,300 by the end of next year. What’s more, Goldman said it sees risks to this upgraded estimate as “skewed to the upside,” given the potential for “private sector diversification into the relatively small gold market,” which could push ETF holdings even higher than its model currently implies.
The upward revision comes as gold futures breached $4,000 per ounce for the first time this week, extending a historic rally that has seen prices double in less than two years amid widespread economic and geopolitical turbulence.
Gold futures on COMEX reached a record intraday high of $4,014.60 on Oct. 7, before settling just below that mark. Spot gold also briefly topped $4,000, boosted by safe-haven demand as the U.S. government shutdown entered its second week.
‘Perfect Storm’ of Macro Forces
Goldman analysts said in the note that they expect central banks to continue adding to their reserves, projecting purchases to average 80 metric tons in 2025 and 70 tons in 2026, largely from emerging market institutions diversifying away from the U.S. dollar.
The investment bank also expects Western ETF demand to strengthen as the Federal Reserve lowers rates by a full percentage point by mid-2026, a move it says could lift gold prices by about five percent.
These trends tie into what some analysts are calling a “perfect storm” of macroeconomic drivers—including inflation fears, currency weakness, and policy uncertainty—converging in gold’s favor.
“There are several macro factors driving gold’s outperformance this year,” Nic Puckrin, investment analyst and co-founder of The Coin Bureau, told The Epoch Times in an emailed statement. “Firstly, it’s an ongoing U.S. dollar debasement trade. We have massive fiscal spending in the U.S. with the Big Beautiful Bill and loosening monetary policy, which is fuelling renewed concerns over inflation.”
Puckrin noted that similar inflationary forces are emerging outside the United States, pointing to Japan’s revival of stimulus-style policies as another driver of demand for hard assets. In such an environment, he said, investors are naturally gravitating toward gold as a time-tested hedge against inflation. Central banks are also steadily adding to their reserves to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar—a convergence of factors Puckrin described as a “perfect storm” likely to keep supporting prices in line with Goldman’s outlook.
The latest leg of the rally has also been underpinned by rapid inflows into gold-backed ETFs. Data from ING show global ETF holdings have risen for nine straight sessions, reaching 97.4 million ounces—their highest level since September 2022.
Fiat Fears and Portfolio Rebalancing
According to Stefan Gleason, CEO of Money Metals Exchange, gold’s surge past $4,000 reinforces its role as a “hedge against accelerating fiat destruction and fiscal instability.” The metal is up more than 50 percent this year, Gleason said, driven in part by currency debasement, geopolitical tension, and central bank buying, as well as by “a rebalancing on Wall Street” where investors are increasingly holding gold in lieu of U.S. Treasuries.
“This precious metals rally has accelerated with the Federal Reserve’s renewed rate cuts, which have driven real yields lower,” he told The Epoch Times in an emailed statement. “Just as importantly, we are seeing a rebalancing on Wall Street with investment houses like Morgan Stanley recently recommending a partial swap of bonds for gold.”
Two weeks ago, Morgan Stanley’s investment manager urged investors to move from a traditional 60/40 stock-to-bond split to 60/20/20—adding gold as a core 20 percent holding. “Goldman’s $4,900 call is absolutely realistic, if not conservative,” Gleason said. “Most investors in the U.S. still have almost no allocation to gold, and that means this shift from bonds to gold may just be getting started.”
This evolving investor behavior could amplify the metal’s gains well beyond base-case forecasts, Goldman said in a previous report. In it, the bank estimated that if just 1 percent of the $24 trillion U.S. Treasury market were reallocated into gold, prices could approach $5,000 an ounce—even without broader financial upheaval. With Wall Street now openly debating portfolio shifts of that kind, Goldman’s once-theoretical scenario appears increasingly plausible.
Veteran trader Vince Stanzione, CEO of First Information, said that a growing loss of investor confidence in the U.S. dollar is a key driver of the gold surge.
“The recent rally, which really started in 2022 after the U.S. blocked Russian funds, is down to loss of faith in the dollar,” he told The Epoch Times in an emailed statement. “Gold is a tier-one asset, which means banks can hold it at full value.”
He said retail investors have yet to fully catch on to the implications of falling purchasing power of the greenback. “I have been calling for gold at $7,000 by 2028 for some years,“ he said. ”However, I think I need to increase that. Remember, we are pricing in a debasing currency.”
Reuters contributed to this report.
Why Bullion Beats Numismatics and Collectible for Your Safe or IRA
Precious metals continue to attract Americans seeking reliable ways to protect their wealth amid inflation, geopolitical risks, and stock market swings. Whether stored in a home safe or held inside a self-directed IRA, physical gold and silver deliver tangible value that paper or digital assets often lack. Yet investors must choose carefully between bullion—pure bars and coins valued mainly for their metal content—and numismatics or collectibles, where rarity, history, and collector demand heavily influence pricing.
Advisor Bullion serves as a dependable source for straightforward, high-quality bullion. The company specializes in physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, emphasizing transparent pricing and products that deliver maximum metal content for every dollar spent. This approach makes it ideal for both personal holdings and retirement accounts.
Bullion consists of refined precious metals in standard forms like one-ounce coins (American Gold Eagles, Silver Eagles, Canadian Maple Leafs) or bars. Their value tracks closely to the current spot price of the metal. A typical gold bullion coin trades near the live gold spot price plus a small premium. This structure keeps costs clear and predictable.
Numismatic coins and collectibles add substantial value from factors such as age, rarity, minting errors, or historical significance. A pre-1933 U.S. gold coin or graded proof piece can carry premiums of 30%, 50%, or even 200% above melt value. While this appeals to hobbyists, it creates complexity. Pricing depends on subjective grading, collector trends, and auction results instead of daily spot prices.
For investors focused on wealth preservation and retirement security rather than building a collection, bullion often delivers better results.
Lower Costs and Better Liquidity for Home Storage
When keeping metals in a home safe or private vault, liquidity and efficiency count. Bullion offers clear benefits:
- You acquire more actual gold or silver per dollar invested. Numismatics divert a large share of your money into rarity premiums and massive sales commission, reducing your metal exposure.
- Selling bullion involves tight bid-ask spreads, so you recover nearly full spot value with minimal fees. Collectibles require finding the right buyer and may sell at a discount if demand for that specific item weakens.
- Bullion prices remain transparent and update with global spot markets. You can track gold near current levels or silver accordingly and know exactly where your holdings stand. Numismatic values are priced by the Gold IRA companies with hefty margins applied.
- Standardized coins and bars store efficiently and divide easily for partial sales. Rare coins often need protective slabs and controlled conditions, adding hassle and expense.
- Bullion enjoys worldwide acceptance. A 1-oz Gold Maple Leaf or Silver Eagle sells quickly to dealers anywhere. Niche numismatic pieces may appeal only to limited buyers, slowing liquidation when speed matters.
In times when quick access to value becomes important, bullion’s simplicity stands out.
Stronger Fit for Precious Metals IRAs
Precious metals IRAs continue gaining traction as investors diversify retirement portfolios beyond stocks and bonds. IRS rules permit certain bullion products in self-directed IRAs if they meet purity standards (.995 fine for gold, .999 for silver) and are held by an approved custodian. Eligible items include American Gold and Silver Eagles plus many generic bars and rounds from recognized mints.
Numismatic and most collectible coins generally face heavy scrutiny from custodians due to valuation disputes and elevated markups. These higher premiums mean less actual metal ends up working inside the account.
Bullion avoids these issues. Its value links directly to verifiable spot prices, which simplifies reporting and lowers the risk of regulatory challenges. More of your IRA contribution purchases real metal instead of dealer profits or speculative upside. Over time, owning additional ounces that appreciate with the metal itself can create meaningful outperformance compared with high-premium alternatives that deliver fewer ounces.
Regulatory guidance from the CFTC and state securities offices repeatedly cautions against aggressive sales of expensive numismatics or “semi-numismatic” coins for IRAs. For retirement planning, transparent bullion from established providers reduces risk and aligns better with long-term goals.
How to Get Started with Bullion
Begin by clarifying your goals. Are you protecting savings in a safe, or moving part of a retirement account into a precious metals IRA? Focus on the number of ounces you can acquire at current prices rather than chasing marked-up collectibles.
Diversify sensibly: use gold for core preservation and silver for its blend of industrial and monetary qualities. Mix coins for easier divisibility with bars for lower per-ounce costs on larger buys. Arrange secure storage—whether at home with proper insurance or through professional facilities.
As economic uncertainties linger and faith in conventional assets erodes, bullion continues proving its worth as a dependable store of value. Its direct approach avoids the hype that sometimes surrounds collectible markets and keeps the focus on the metal itself.
For investors prepared to strengthen their portfolios, Advisor Bullion supplies the expertise and selection needed to acquire high-quality bullion efficiently. Whether building personal holdings or integrating metals into an IRA, their emphasis on transparent, investment-grade products helps secure more ounces today that support greater financial security tomorrow. In a complicated financial landscape, bullion’s clarity and reliability make it the smarter foundation for protecting what matters most.