(Zero Hedge)—A 2026 analysis from the Progressive Policy Institute found a strong negative correlation between the political power of state teachers’ unions and states’ adoption of evidence-based early literacy policies. PPI Director of Education Policy Rachel Canter conducted the analysis, comparing union-strength rankings from the Thomas B. Fordham Institute against literacy-policy data from the ExcelinEd education advocacy group. At least eight of the ten states with the worst student literacy scores lean Democratic and have politically powerful teachers’ unions. Only five of the worst ten are Republican, and one is a swing state.
Writing in The Wall Street Journal, Canter explained that PPI sorts states by which party holds the legislature and the governor’s mansion, and that the gap tracks union power more closely than it tracks party.
Fordham’s June ranking put California, Massachusetts, and New Jersey among the strongest union states in the country, while Mississippi, Tennessee, Oklahoma, and Arkansas ended up near the bottom. When you cross-reference this list with ExcelinEd’s literacy tracker, the negative correlation becomes clear.
Partisanship alone cannot account for this situation; Wyoming and South Dakota, led by the Republican Party and with weak unions, still score poorly on literacy policy. Of the about half of states controlled by Republicans, only Mississippi, Louisiana, Alabama, and Tennessee developed comprehensive literacy policies and stayed committed long enough to see results.
Canter spent years in Mississippi, a state that ranked among the nation’s worst performers for middle and elementary test scores in 2013 and by 2024 had climbed to a tie for seventh in fourth-grade reading and 13th in math. “We found a strong, negative correlation between the two – the more powerful the unions, the fewer literacy policy principles the state had adopted,” Canter said.
Mississippi turned things around by enacting the Literacy Based Promotion Act in 2013. This piece of legislation required third graders scoring at the lowest reading level to repeat the grade. The law mandated extra training and coaching for teachers at the state’s lowest-performing elementary schools, required every school to screen kindergartners through third graders for reading difficulty three times a year, and required immediate parent notification when a child fell below benchmark.
The approach is based on the science of reading. This instructional framework centers on phonics, systematic letter-sound instruction, background knowledge, vocabulary, and comprehension, and traces back to the National Reading Panel’s 2000 report.
Mississippi fourth-graders posted the country’s largest gains since 2013, tying for seventh in reading and landing 13th in math among all states by 2024. That happened even as national literacy trends moved in the opposite direction. Fourth-grade reading scores fell back to roughly their 2000 level. Math scores recovered only partially from a 2022 low and remain below the highs the country set more than a decade earlier. Middle and high school reading and math results in 2024 either matched or fell below their lowest marks of the century, and the most recent PISA results showed American 15-year-olds still well under pre-pandemic highs, tied at their record low.
Despite the negative correlation between powerful teachers’ unions and literacy, there is hope to turn things around nationwide. In New Mexico, for example, lawmakers passed literacy legislation unanimously over the objections of teachers’ unions, moving state policy closer to Mississippi’s model. The reforms addressed teacher licensure, instructional coaching, and curriculum. New Mexico’s unions eventually withdrew their opposition.
Maryland followed suit in 2024, adopting a policy mirroring Mississippi’s. The state board did, however, carve out a compromise after pushback from its teachers’ association, allowing parents to opt a child out of repeating third grade if the child completes a state-approved reading-intervention program, an alternative that takes effect next year with results still unknown.
Even the deep blue state of Massachusetts, which has the nation’s third-strongest teachers’ union, is following Mississippi’s footsteps. In June, Gov. Maura Healey signed legislation strengthening teacher training, K-3 curriculum requirements, screening, and parent notification, handing the state education department real enforcement authority. The bill passed both chambers unanimously, despite opposition and pressure from teachers’ unions.
Mary Tamer of Mass Potential, who led the Mass Reads Coalition, credited a coalition of parents and researchers, weak post-pandemic reading scores, and mounting skepticism of union arguments for unrestricted classroom autonomy. Three former Massachusetts Teachers of the Year backed the bill over their own union’s objections. “They were incredibly brave to speak up against union leadership on this issue,” Tamer said.
Massachusetts, Maryland, and New Mexico prove that Mississippi’s turnaround travels wherever the political will exists to put students first. “The question is whether policymakers, regardless of party alignment, have the courage to risk taking heat on behalf of our children’s future,” Canter wrote.
Two Storms, One Harvest
Every food crisis in living memory has been a one-shock event. The 2008 price spike was a commodity bubble. The 2020 shortages were a logistics failure. The 2022 grain scare was a war on one exporter’s ports. Each time, the system bent, adjusted, and recovered, and each time the experts assured us afterward that global markets are simply too big and too diversified to fail.
What nobody in Washington seems eager to discuss is that 2026 is shaping up to be something the modern food system has never actually faced. Two independent shocks, one climatic and one geopolitical, are converging on the same harvest cycle at the same time. Not sequentially. Simultaneously.
Start with the weather. The Pacific Ocean is currently building toward what forecasters now openly call a record event. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of at least a strong El Niño near 88 percent, with roughly two in three odds it reaches “very strong” status, the tier reserved for perhaps three or four events in the entire satellite era. Every major global model now projects a median peak in Super El Niño territory, and most of them project it exceeding the 2015-16 event, which until now held the modern record. Sea surface anomalies were already brushing the super threshold in mid-July, months before these events normally peak. The atmosphere has already shifted into El Niño mode, and the event is forecast to crest in late fall and early winter.
This is not about “climate change.” It’s about the standard cycles of weather, and the cycle we’re currently in is one that has likely devastated societies in the past. We’re better prepared as a society today, but not all Americans are equally prepared.
Serious households have started doing the quiet math on their own. Grocery bills tell part of the story, and the forecast maps tell the rest, which is why long-term food storage has moved from fringe hobby to mainstream line item in the family budget, with established suppliers like Heaven’s Harvest seeing demand from people who five years ago would have rolled their eyes at the idea. That instinct is not paranoia. It is pattern recognition, and the pattern is worth walking through carefully.
Editor’s Note: Heaven’s Harvest IS a sponsor, but the warnings of this article are real and would be written even if we didn’t have a survival food sponsor. With that said, those who take advantage of what they offer can use promo code “Patriot” for 15% off.
The Fertilizer Clock Is Already Running
While the Pacific warms, the second shock has been unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict with Iran turned the world’s most important energy chokepoint into a contested waterway, and the consequences reach far beyond the gas pump. Roughly a third of global fertilizer trade moves through Hormuz, and the disruption sent urea prices up 86 percent year over year by March, with a 53 percent jump in a single month.
The World Bank projects energy prices rising about 24 percent in 2026 and fertilizer about 31 percent. By its own accounting, fertilizer prices ran 35 percent higher in the first five months of this year than the same period last year.
Here is the mechanism the nightly news will not explain. Fertilizer is not a grocery item. It is a time-delayed input. The nitrogen a farmer in Iowa or Punjab could not afford to apply this spring does not show up as a problem this spring. It shows up as a thinner harvest six to twelve months later.
The World Bank’s own food security brief concedes that the effects of reduced applications earlier this season “are likely to become visible only later in harvest outcomes.” Translate that from institutional language into plain English and it means this. The damage is already done, it is already in the ground, and we are simply waiting for it to arrive on the shelf.
Now check the calendar. Six to twelve months from the spring planting season lands us squarely in late 2026 and early 2027. Which is precisely when the strongest El Niño in the instrumental record is forecast to peak, bringing its signature droughts to Southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa, northern Brazil, and South Asia, the very regions that grow the world’s rice, sugar, and oilseeds.
The World Bank warns openly that a strong El Niño “could disrupt multiple crop belts simultaneously” on top of the conflict-driven input costs. Their baseline projection assumes the Middle East disruptions ease by autumn. What in the last two years of Middle East history suggests that assumption is safe?
The System Has No Slack Left
The comfortable answer is that global markets always adjust. But adjustment requires slack, and the slack is gone. Global cereal production is expected to decline from last year’s records even before El Niño does its work. The UN World Food Programme, hardly a den of right-wing preppers, is calling this the most significant disruption to its supply chains since Covid and the invasion of Ukraine, and its supply chain director put the stakes bluntly.
Today’s supply chain challenges are tomorrow’s hunger crisis.
There is also a political dimension that markets cannot price. When food gets scarce, governments do not behave like economists. They behave like politicians. Export bans, hoarding mandates, and panic buying at the national level turned the modest rice shortfall of 2008 into a global crisis, and analysts are already warning that import-dependent nations are the first dominoes.
The 2015-16 Super El Niño, a far weaker event than what is now forecast, threw tens of millions into food stress across Africa and Asia. This one is projected to be stronger, and it arrives with fertilizer already rationed by price and shipping lanes already contested by missiles.
What Joseph Knew
Scripture does not treat preparation for lean years as faithlessness. It treats it as wisdom delivered in advance to those willing to act on it.
Behold, there come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of Egypt: And there shall arise after them seven years of famine; and all the plenty shall be forgotten in the land of Egypt.
Joseph did not respond to that warning with a hashtag or a committee. He stored grain during the years of abundance, and when the famine came, Egypt stood while its neighbors begged. The lesson is not that famine is certain. It is that the time to prepare is precisely when preparation still looks optional.
Nobody who filled a pantry in a year of plenty has ever regretted it, and nobody standing in an empty aisle has ever been glad he waited for certainty.
None of this calls for panic, and panic is the enemy of sound judgment anyway. It calls for the same unglamorous prudence our grandparents considered ordinary. Keep some cash margin, know your local growers, and put real food in deep storage while it is cheap and available, because the entire arc of this story is that cheap and available is a closing window.
Families looking for a straightforward place to start can visit Heaven’s Harvest and use promo code Patriot for 15 percent off long-term storable food. The forecasts may yet soften, the strait may yet reopen, and we should pray they do. But hope is a fine thing to hold and a foolish thing to eat.